Public Policy Polling is out with another poll. This one is huge, with a lot of results for us to talk about.
But, before I dive into details, check out this quick insert from the Indy Weekly of the Triangle:
Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.
Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll. This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.
First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush’s approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.
This number has been fairly consistent for a while. If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.
Next up is Elizabeth Dole.
This poll has Dole’s approval rating at 48% approval and 40% disapproval. Her numbers have been fluctuating at around +5%. She might have grabbed a point or two because she killed the immigration bill (first thing she has accomplished in months), but I think this is just margin of error fluctuations.
Just for kicks PPP did a matchup poll between Dole and each of the Democratic candidates for Governor. Dole leads Lt Gov Beverly Perdue 46 to 37. Dole leads Treasurer Richard Moore 45 to 34.
Neither of them will actually run, but its interesting because this is matchup poll #6 where Dole has polled below 50%.
From the other side of the aisle, Right Wing think lie tank Civitas has a poll out showing slightly different results. I wont link to their poll unless I have to, for the same reason I wouldnt link to Rush Limbaugh or Bill O’Reilly. However, I will talk about their results.
I do not trust these results, as they are normally as Republican friendly as possible without the group losing their non-profit status. However, with that caveat, their poll results are really good for us. They give Dole the same 48% approval rating, but with an impossibly low 28% disapproval. They also show 22% with no opinion. They also polled for Brad Miller, showing him with 14% approval, 10% disapproval, 38% no opinion and 38% dont know his name. Considering Brad has only been in Congress since 2002, this is not too surprising. It might be a little low, but is about what I expected his numbers to be. If he is going to beat Dole it will just be a question of whether he can raise the money needed to get his name in front of people.
With all of those caveats, they polled Dole v Miller, and got 46% Dole 31% Miller. So, a Republican friendly poll against a guy with 24% name ID, and they still cant give her numbers above 50%. She is in BIG trouble.
Ok, back to the Public Policy Poll. They did matchup polling between Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Rudy McRomneyson.
Against Rudy
Giuliani 47% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 46% Obama 42%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 46%
Against Romney
Romney 41% Clinton 47%
Romney 40% Obama 44%
Romney 37% Edwards 51%
Against McCain
McCain 44% Clinton 45%
McCain 45% Obama 44%
McCain 40% Edwards 48%
Against Thompson
Thompson 46% Clinton 43%
Thompson 45% Obama 40%
Thompson 43% Edwards 47%
In the crosstabs, Edwards bleeds off more Republican support than either Obama or Clinton. But, his real strength is amongst independent voters. Obama does the worst job of holding onto Democrats, but he is buoyed by his support amongst independents.
What is really interesting is the similarities amongst black voters for all the candidates. Personally, I think these polls might be even better news for us than seem. Does anyone really believe that Obama would lose up to 20% of black voters to McCain? Does anyone really believe that on election day 24% of black voters will choose Rudy over Edwards?
All these Republicans have way too many skeletons for that to happen, meaning you can probably safely add 2-3 points to every Democratic result.
Some other thoughts on cross tabs.
Dole’s support amongst women is still much healthier than her support amongst men. This is something that can be changed just by focusing on her actual record on “women’s issues”.
Our numbers amongst younger voters are simply astonishing.
Amongst voters between the ages of 18 and 29:
Edwards leads Romney 64 to 33!
Obama leads McCain 61 to 33!
There is a lot more to swallow, check out the poll for yourself. There are 12 pages (PDF) of statistical goodness.
A quick personal note to end the diary. Thank you to the people who donated to Brad Miller yesterday. The Draft page raised over a 1000 dollars yesterday with donors from Kentucky to NC, and donations from $20.00 to $1000.08 Thank you a thousand times over to those people who put their money where their mouth is.
The numbers are 44-45 (not 40-45).